Science Fiction and the Future

Did S.F. predict the future?

Can it predict it now?

Firstly: what sort of S.F. are we looking at?

But these divisions are a little artificial:

e.g.

"To see far off, and converse in thought with one another" said Gandalf.." each Palantir replied to each, but all those in in Gondor were ever open to the view of Osgiliath...But alone it could do nothing but see small images of things far off"

is obviously fantasy.

Short History of Science Fiction

Prehistory

 
The Golden Age:

New Wave

So what can S.F. predict? Technology in General
Hugo Gernsback Ralph 124C41+1911

Verdict A+, but note

While Verne's characters frequently were stiff, Gernsback's characters have less dimension than the pages the novel is printed on. What characterization does occur is laughable, as is Gernsback's take on society. His world of the twenty-seventh century seems particularly naive, with a nebulous world government (which seems to have done away with actual surnames). ..... The best thing that can be said for Gernsback's writing style is that he was in desperate need of an editor and an English grammar. His prose is repetitive and basic. Steven H Silver

So what can S.F. predict?

Nuclear ("Atomic") Energy

Verdict: A+

So what can S.F. predict?

Computers

Verdict: B

Comments: Hardware is always underestimated, software ignored

e.g. Starwars S.D.I., 10 million lines code, 30,000 man years

also usually seen as one monolithic machine, whereas the evolution is towards very distributed systems.

So what can S.F. predict?

Time Travel

Verdict: You tell me!

Comment: If it's in the Ottawa Citizen, it must be true....

So what can S.F. predict?

Transport

Aircraft (1903) Daedalus~500 BC VemeRobur the Conqueror ~1886(no mass transport)

Walkways Heinlein"If This Goes On"1935 (only in airports)

Space Travel

• VerneVoyage to the Moon ~1880(Gun)
• WellsFirst Men in the Moon 1900 (Antigravity)
• Tsiolovsky Beyond the Planet Earth ~1920 (Rockets)
• A. Clark 1948 (Geosynchronous Satellites)

So what can S.F. predict?

Failures

• Faster than light travel
• Telepathy/PSI Phenomena in general:Evidence shaky, if they are useful, why haven't they evolved
• Blasters/Death Rays: Star Wars
• Androids/Robots:       No androids,General purpose Robots seem pointless
• Immortality

So what can S.F. predict?

Societies

Must be read as parables not predictions

H.G. Wells

• "Shape of things to come"
• "When the sleeper awakes"
• "Food of the Gods"
• "Men like Gods"

All have superior, enlightened subset of man imposing Utopia on reluctant masses

Overpopulation -> Disaster controlled by birth control & elimination of unfit (Nazi Germany)

Disastrous world war followed by scientific elite taking over (US in Japan)

Huxley, Aldous

• Brave New World (& Revisited)(1935?)

• Island(1939?)

Hallucinogenic Drugs (Valium and LSD, Ritalin) Soma

Cloning of Humans -> Designated roles in society

Vonnegut

• Player Piano

Pohl & Kornbluth

• The Space Merchants

World dominated by advertising Chicken Little (Super Tomato!)

Ray Bradbury

• Fahrenheit 451

Society after war destroys all written material (Cambodia)

Anthony Burgess

• Clockwork Orange

Randomly Violent Society, Restructuring of mind by drugs (Liverpool, New York...)

Overpopulation & Pollution: Common themes e.g.

• HarrisonMake Room, Make Room (Solyent Green as the movie version)
• Nolan & Johnson Logan's Run
• BrunnerStand on Zanzibar

The Sheep Look Up

• SilverbergThe Human Hive

The Future of (Predictive) Science Fiction

Science, Society, Technology

SCIENCE

No Future: Science is too extraordinary and too complicated to be predicted

e.g. Superstring Theory

Particles as we know them (Protons, Electrons) are composed of strings in 10 dimensional Space-Time. 6 dimensional are compact -> forces in ordinary space.

Sakharov suggests that different parts of space could have different dimensionality: e.g. 4-Space, No Time

SOCIETY

No problem: Society cannot be predicted, but aspects can

TECHNOLOGY

10 most influential discoveries/inventions of all time

• Fire
• Domestication of animals
• Metal Smelting
• Agriculture
• Ceramics/Bricks
• Ships
• Moveable Type
• Powered Machinery
• Telephone/Wireless
• Aircraft

Are there any inventions left (ones that matter)

e.g. Lasers

• Communication: Million T.V. Channels by optical fibre
• Cuts cloth for customized suits: So do scissors
• Provides light shows: So do fireworks
• Holograms: We had 3D movies already
• Makes integrated circuits smaller: We had them already
• Attaches retinae

Does nothing fundamentally new, which will modify society

e.g. Glass

Since Roman time, transparency has increased by 1 trillion times (Did you notice!!!)

Shaw Light of Other Days Slow glass has refractive index of 10¹⁸, so light travels through it at the speed of 1mm/year.

"Optical Molasses" effect discovered (1997): various odd materials slow down light to few m/s

What remains to be discovered?

Reading List:

This is a very personal list of "predictive" Science Fiction. If you can find any other good examples, Email Peter Watson and I will add them.

A useful source of generic SF info is